I was looking at the electoral numbers for today’s Karnataka Election Results. One of the biggest chest thumping by any party is, we scored these many votes even if we won lesser seats.

Why does this happen? Two reasons –
1. Less seats won, but with massive margins.
2. More votes as a loser.

The below table tries to make sense of that.

BJP INC JDS
As Winner Actual 22.50% 16.35% 8.69%
0% Margin 17.18% 12.95% 5.96%
2% Margin 17.51% 13.20% 6.08%
5% Margin 18.02% 13.53% 6.25%
10% Margin 18.79% 13.99% 6.52%
As Loser Actual 13.73% 21.63% 9.64%
Total Actual 36.23% 37.98% 18.33%
0% Margin 30.91% 34.58% 15.61%
2% Margin 31.25% 34.82% 15.72%
5% Margin 31.75% 35.15% 15.89%
10% Margin 32.52% 35.61% 16.16%

As a winner, BJP scored 22.5% of vote. But, if, let’s say, it won all the seats by 0% margin, it scores only 17% vote. Come to JDS, it’s 6%. As we increase the margin, we are seeing the percentages rising. Meaning, the more brutal the majority, the higher the vote share and it is not completely dependent on number of seats won. And what’s the total vote share they won as losers? Should we really consider that number in vote shares? BJP gets 13.73% of total vote polled as loser while Congress gets 21.63% of vote as loser. What purpose is that vote going to serve in the real sense?

And now some numbers.

Party BJP INC JDS
Total Independent Votes > Winner? 1 1 0
Winner > Balance Big 2 Parties 69 43 21
Winner < Second + NOTA 2 8
Less than 1% of Vote 1 2 43
Less than 5% of Vote 17 4 88

BJP and Congress, as winners, scored 1 seat each under the situation independents polled more votes combined than the winner. Coming to brutal majorities, in 69 wins by BJP had more votes than Congress and JDS combined and JDS won only 21 such. It looks like Congress has more wins in it’s kitty where the votes polled by the one who came second and NOTA combined is more than the winner.  If NOTA is not there, will those 10 votes be the game clinchers in favour of BJP?

The next set of numbers. I am not at all happy. A party which polled less than 1% of the total combined vote in 43 seats(appx 20% of the seats contested), should it be treated as a state party, forget national? And extend the numbers to 10%, the story is even more pathetic – 88 seats or about 45% of  total seats contested. Either it is a sub-regional party with token presence in some areas or it is never a force to reckon with.

Irony, today, is, this is the party which is going to give Karnataka it’s new Chief Minister.

 

 

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