In some book I was reading, the author gave China an expiry date of 2040. I don’t know about it, but the reason which he gave was captivating. China is an export oriented economy. Wherever the raw materials are located and whereever the products are finished, they are sold primarily through sea. Because of this, the coast gets richer and richer while the interior stays as is. The rich from the interior migrate to the coast and as time progresses, the gap between the coast and interior will increase and this disparity in quality of life standards creates discontent and this will rip apart the country. Building upon this, at the tipping point, there will be a rebellion and the rebellion will either be the new dynasty ruling China or will be such powerful enough to bruise China permanently so that someone else will take over the government. It is surprising to note that almost all of the Chinese dynasties collapsed in the same fashion, meaning, this is an inherent fault in Chinese model of governance and unless corrected, it will gobble up the current China as well. The rebellion is either that of an over exerted or underfed army or that of a popular rebellion. Even the Mongols and Manchus launched their invasions from the interior, taking advantage of the discontent in army and populace.

Start End Duration Crripling Blow Interior China
Qin dynasty 221 BC 206 BC 15 years Chu rebels Y
Han dynasty 206 BC or 202 BC AD 220 410 years Yellow Turban Rebellion Y
Jin dynasty AD 265 AD 420 155 years Palace Coup & Secession
Southern and Northern dynasties AD 420 AD 589 169 years North – Military Rebellion in Luoyang Y
Sui dynasty AD 581 AD 618 37 years Construction of Great Wall of China Y
Tang dynasty AD 618 AD 907 289 years An Lushan Rebellion, Huang Chao Rebellion Y
Song dynasty AD 960 AD 1279 319 years Mongol Invasion
Yuan dynasty AD 1271 AD 1368 97 years Red Turban Rebellion Y
Ming dynasty AD 1368 AD 1644 or 1662 276 years Li Zicheng Rebellion Y
Qing dynasty AD 1636 or 1644 AD 1912 268 years Taiping Rebellion Y

 

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