Below is the ground reality before the elections –
1. Rajasthan – Outside the state, no one knew what’s happening in the state, except for the rape case.
2. Madhya Pradesh – The CM is doing good
3. Delhi – The CM is doing good, but the problem is all protests happen in Delhi and any anger against Congress will be directed directly against the State Government, whether they are related to that or not.
4. Chattisgarh – The complete Congress high command is decimated and the previous government formed was formed with a slender majority.
This is what happened in the elections –
Rajasthan: BJP won with a thumping majority. A simple reason for that is that in all the states in North India except J&K, the story is that for five years one party rules and for the next five, it’s the other party. It’s not that BJP won this time, but it’s that Congress lost due to non-performance. If you look at the last few elections –
2013 – BJP
2008 – Congress
2003 – BJP
1999 – Congress
So, there’s nothing new here, the ruling party non-performs and is simply shunted out. If BJP wins the next time, then, there’s something to analyse.
Madhya Pradesh: The CM is good and he simply held to his post. Nothing much to talk about there.
Delhi: Below are the things which probably broke Congress, even though it’s not the fault of the state government –
1. The super-security VIP area where people, some of them tagged as corrupt, are provided every government privilege while an ordinary civilian hasn’t got anything.
2. Corruption is everywhere. But because of Anna Hazare’s protest and consequent set up of AAP, people’s focus was over this for a considerable time.
3. All protests in India, if they are major, happen in Delhi. Is it not an inconvenience for an ordinary citizen if trains or roads are blocked for no fault of his, while the government has done nothing to make him convenient? If someone highlights this at the opportune time, what’s going to happen?
4. Most of all, people are more educated and enlightened. AAP, if this is the case, cannot survive in any rural areas. Note that Lok Satta Party won only from the IT belt of Hyderbad and nowhere else in the state elections. Another thing is, they were successful in highlighting all these issues.
Basically, what broke the Congress is not local, but what’s happening all over the country. Again here, BJP did not win, it just maintained it’s vote base, while AAP ate into Congress’s. Going by what’s happening now, I think, AAP should support BJP in forming government, but should be an opposition which regulates BJP and question it on every wrong step, behaving more like a guiding angel aiming for proper governance than that of an embittered foe who lost.
Chattisgarh: The complete Congress high command with the exception of Ajit Jogi were massacred. Congress tried to blame BJP, but BJP didn’t counter it. The CM tried to run the show with what he did. Probably, nothing changed in the state, except in the constituencies where someone related to one of those slain stood in elections. So, as in Madhya Pradesh, it’s just a status quo.